How did NASA send space probe Messenger on a successful space mission that took 6.5 years just to arrive, yet we can’t predict traffic in an hour’s time?
The fact this book was finished before Coronavirus was astonishing timing because the virus gave everyone in the world this very topic: radical uncertainty.
Radical Uncertainty was written by John Kay, a professor and director of several public companies, and Mervin King, the governor of the Bank of England from 2003 to 2013 – including the 2008/9 financial crisis.
I absolutely loved this book. Whilst writing this review I flicked through the book and ended up reading several pages again.
The book’s premise is simple: how can NASA send probes into space, due to arrive at their destinations several years in the future, and everything goes according to perfect plan, arriving at a specific point in space right on the predicted time; whilst we fail to predict tomorrow’s stock price or today’s traffic? The answer is that when humans are involved, we experience radical uncertainty. Continue reading Book review: Radical Uncertainty→
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Here are my technology & business predictions for 2021. I try to predict trends that are outside the mainstream, and with high expectations. It seems to get harder every year, and compiling this list for 2021 was by far the hardest yet.
Please share your feedback and thoughts on these predictions, either here, on LinkedIn or Twitter. I wish you a safe, healthy and prosperous 2021.
1. Microsoft Teams becomes the next operating system
The XBox was designed as a media device as well as a games console – even if it kept watching you all the time
Like them or loathe them, Microsoft manages to keep providing products for mass appeal during the the various stages of our digital lives. Microsoft keeps transforming these individual products into full platforms.
Examples include Xbox which wasn’t designed just a games console, it’s was also a set top box with full media capabilities; Internet Explorer (now Edge) isn’t just for browsing – it became so powerful for anything you browsed; Dynamics has turned from a straightforward CRM tool into an ERP platform; and now Teams has moved from a new version of Skype into our one-stop business productivity & communication platform.
Over the next year we’ll see Microsoft Teams appear as a consumer platform as well as a business tool. We’ll see more applications join the Teams platform, which will mean we’ll be able to do our banking, email, or pretty much anything inside of Teams. Continue reading 2021 Technology & Business Predictions→
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Many websites and blogs publish their predictions for the year ahead. Not many of them review their predictions at the end of the year though. Even fewer score their previous set of predictions.
It would have been difficult to forecast what happened this year. But let’s see how those 2020 predictions fared in the oddest of years.
1. Alerts from voice assistants
I said that “At the end of 2019, the Google Home device in our kitchen started answers requests with more suggestions of other skills.”
The number of unsafe websites detected per week has increased sharply. Source: Google
There has been an increase in scam/ phishing emails recently. And the biggest challenge is that they are looking increasingly genuine.
Someone in my immediately family clicked on one of the text messages, and we ended up having to change our debit cards.
Here are some that I’ve received in the last couple of weeks.
Stay alert for the following signs.
Creating an emotional reaction
This is the hardest to avoid. When I received the Thrifty phishing email below my immediate response was “I can’t believe I have to pay an overage for a car I rented last Summer“. I was almost tempted. The O2 text message below managed to convince my close family member because we were on holiday at the time and they thought “I don’t want my mobile to be disconnected while I’m away“. These emotional reactions cause us to stop thinking and start clicking.
Here’s how phishing emails create that emotional reaction.
Urgency
Very few companies need an immediate payment. The phrases “Don’t miss out!” and “valid until...” create urgency, which creates the emotional reaction in the point above.
Too good to be true
As always, if it’s too good to be true, it isn’t. This too, creates an emotional reaction for you to stop thinking and start clicking on those phishing emails.
Links in phishing emails
Banks and government agencies usually make a point of not including any links in their email and directing people to their official website. They recommend opening a web browser and making you typing in their web address, not clicking on a link. In the scams below:
The Thrifty email links go to a website that is clearly not Thrifty’s
The O2 text message is a NOT an O2 website, it is a subdomain made to look like the real O2 site.
Home video camera sales have increased over 18,500% this month. Why?? And what will happen in December 2021?
Every year I write an article to predict technology changes in the coming year. The article is one of the most read pages of this blog.
Thanks to Jonathan who came up with an idea to write an updated version due to the Coronavirus situation.
When thinking about and writing these types of articles, there are two easy traps:
“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten”. Well said Bill Gates.
When thinking of the future, we base it on history. No one (except Bill Gates again) would have factored in Coronavirus when planning 2020. Richard Watson, a futurist author who I’ve mentioned several times on this site, calls these unthinkable unknowns “critical uncertainties”. In February 2020 we thought 2020 would be a great year, with a great economy and record UK employment. In April 2020 it’s easy to fall into the trap of 2020 & 21 being REALLY bad years.
So here goes…
Bob. In December 2021.
Bob’s alarm clock woke him up for work.
“Good morning Bob, it’s Friday 10th December 2021 and this is your morning briefing”.
This new, 5am alarm was still taking some getting used to.
“Here’s your appointments for today” his alarm continued.
I am recovering from Coronavirus, and it’s horrible.
I’ve written this article because when I started feeling better, I struggled to find out how other people were coping and recovering from it. Some background – I am male, 46 years old, usually very active (more than 200 minutes a week of intensive exercise), BMI of 25, no underlying medical conditions.
Friday
Speaking to the NHS 111 consultant on day three.
My first symptoms were on Friday 3rd April. Until then I had been working from home and exercising at least once a day on Zwift or going for a run outside.
That Friday I worked in the morning and felt fine. At lunchtime I made a sandwich. I felt tired so I brought my sandwich into the living room. I don’t think I’ve ever done this before – I always eat at my desk or in the kitchen. But I just wanted to lie down. My wife suggested I go upstairs so I let some colleagues know that I was feeling tired and went to bed.
I woke up the next morning feeling exhausted. My eyes hurt when I moved them, and although I was drinking water, I didn’t want anything to eat. I ended up not eating anything for about 48 hours. During that time, I simply lay in bed sleeping.
This is where you can see all the data Facebook has collected about you from other companies
Facebook has launched a tool to let users see what data is collected by other organisations, and then shared with Facebook. I used it earlier this week, and it was jaw dropping.
To set the scene, I don’t have a problem with the Internet giants using my data. They provide amazing services in return for me sharing data with them. For example, I can search almost the whole of the Internet on Google, and chat, share images and status updates with anyone on Facebook apps (including Instagram and WhatsApp). Google and Facebook, among several other companies, don’t charge any more than me sharing data with them. I can accept that. It felt like a great deal for both of us.
I really enjoyed listening to the podcast below from McKinsey on the future of air travel.
There’s a balance in the airline industry between sustainability, profit and convenience.
There’s always a tension between safety and future technology. We have so much data about current materials and designs to help keep safety records extremely low. Should aircraft manufacturers design an entirely new, super efficient aircraft design but the safety data is less mature?
Will the future of air travel be electric (unlikely) or pilot-less (more likely)?
The two McKinsey partners on the podcast provide insight from their previous careers as airline pilots, and now advising airlines.
There are some good “Tips from pilots” at the end (at about 28 minutes), where they describe jet lag, packing less, whether to get a window or aisle seat, and eating on board (or not).
Packing lightly reduces your carbon footprint. Every kilogram removed from personal luggage reduces the aircraft’s carbon footprint.
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